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Don’t read too much into Dewhurst’s non-move
Other shoe hasn’t dropped yet on U.S. Senate seat … Gilbert wants to drive up university spending … Obama speech tonight
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Tuesday highlights and the day ahead
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst’s low-key proclamation to supporters Tuesday that he would run for re-election next year served as a reminder of just how many issues are up in the air as we head toward the December filing period for the 2010 elections.
First, it’s important to say that the Dewhurst announcement doesn’t mean much. He’s been saying that he is running for re-election. But U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has said that she is going to leave the Senate this fall, and it is still widely expected that Dewhurst will run for her seat when there is an election to fill it, and maybe even get an interim appointment from Gov. Rick Perry to fill it. Tuesday’s announcement from Dewhurst doesn’t change that.
As has been the case for months, everyone is waiting to see what Hutchison is going to do. And even though she said several weeks ago that she would leave the Senate this fall, she has not yet followed that up with a specific timetable. And there is some of speculation out there that, while she will stay in the governor’s race, she will not give up the Senate seat to run.
There’s one school of thought that says Hutchison could stay in the Senate and try to get out in front of Republican opposition to President Barack Obama’s plans on health care and climate change. The thinking goes that she could build up her visibility with Republican primary voters with frequent appearances on cable and maybe the occasional Sunday show. But wouldn’t she get much more attention if she was campaigning in Texas and getting on the local news (somewhere) every night? After all, there is no shortage of Republicans trying to get on national television right now to talk about health care, and the cable shows they covet still have relatively small audiences.
At 7:30 a.m. this morning, Hutchison gave an interview that lasted about six minutes on CNBC’s Squawk Box. The subject was health care, and Hutchison said numerous times that she opposes Obama’s plan and supports lawsuit reforms and tax credits for consumers to purchase health care. But most of the questions were process-related, so who knows how much of a lasting impression the interview will have. The governor’s race did not come up until the end, when the hosts said they would ask her about it the next time she’s on the show.
Another consideration is that resigning this fall would shift power to Perry, who could then call the special election when he wants. If he thinks he has a lead and wants to sit on it, he could call the election before the primary. Suddenly the short race to fill Hutchison’s seat would become a huge story in the Texas media and could well draw attention away from Hutchison’s efforts to catch Perry in the polls.
National Republicans certainly hope that they won’t have to compete in a special election in the coming months. Republicans have to try to keep open seats in a number of states next year, including New Hampshire, Ohio and Missouri. Texas is a particularly expensive state, and the Democrats interested in Hutchison’s seat are stronger than the candidates that the party usually puts forth for these races. So an unscheduled open seat in Texas could drain money from other GOP efforts. Remember that Texan John Cornyn is responsible for keeping and winning Republican seats in the Senate, and he’ll go to great lengths not to lose a seat in his own state.
Hutchison spokesman Jeff Sadosky said Tuesday, “Nothing has changed since the last time the senator addressed this question. At the moment she is focused on fighting Obama’s liberal agenda.”
Back to Dewhurst. Why did he put out his announcement (a fundraising solicitation) on Tuesday? For one, even if he wants to run for the Senate, he needs to wait somewhere right now. And he may be trying to send a signal to Attorney General Greg Abbott, who many believe will run for lieutenant governor if Dewhurst does not seek re-election.
The Houston Chronicle’s R.G. Ratcliffe raised another interesting point Tuesday. One possibility, Ratcliffe said, is that “Dewhurst wants to retire the $2.5 million campaign debt that he personally guaranteed for his political committee before he makes another personal investment in a Senate race. By announcing for re-election, it becomes easier to raise money for the office he already holds, and federal law may preclude him from raising money to eliminate the state debt once he becomes a senator or Senate candidate.”
• Ralph Haurwitz and I have a story in this morning’s Statesman with new details about how Perry pushed UT System regents to hire John Montford as chancellor last year. (Spoiler alert: The regents weren’t swayed). The story illustrates Perry’s increasingly-controversial involvement in higher education.
On a related note, Perry told Texas Monthly’s Pam Colloff that the Texas A&M Bonfire could return as soon as next year. Colloff, who is working on a story about the 10th anniversary of the Bonfire tragedy, asked the governor how it would be brought back to campus. “I’d leave that up to the board and the current administration to sit down and decide the safety parameters, the oversight, et cetera,” Perry said. “They are very capable men and women, and I trust their judgment.”
• Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hank Gilbert said Tuesday he wants the Legislature to spend $500 million every two years to help seven public universities reach first-tier status. Gilbert’s campaign said the state could tap “unencumbered” revenue, Texas Lottery dollars that are now going into general revenue, or look to surcharges on parking tickets at colleges and universities or a fee of $1 to $5 per semester for college students.
• Democratic consultant Glenn Smith today is launching a new Web site, dogcanyon.org. It sounds a little something like a Texas-based Huffington Post. Smith said Tuesday, “We’re going to do politics, but we’re also going to do some offbeat, unpredictable and entertaining writing on culture — books, movies, music, downhome culture.”
• Gardner Selby reported Tuesday on the Postcards blog that U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, did not hold any August town-hall meetings here in his hometown, where roughly a third of his constituents live. He did hold them in Katy, Tomball, Bellville and Brenham.
• President Barack Obama will address the country at 7 p.m. tonight. Asked about the public option on the “Today” show this morning, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, “The president will outline what he thinks the value of public option is and why he thinks we have to have choice and competition in the system.”
Poll watch
Gallup: “Sixty-four percent of Americans say their representative’s position on health care reform will be a major factor in their vote in the next congressional election; just over a third say it will be no more than a minor factor. Opponents of reform have the edge in intensity here. Among Americans who want their member of Congress to vote against health care reform, 82 percent say the issue will be a major factor in their vote in next year’s elections. Among those wanting their member to vote for reform, 62 percent say the issue will be a major factor for them.” Read more here.
Obama approve/disapprove: 51/41, according to Gallup.
Countdown
174 days until the March 2 primary.
159 days until early voting begins.
In the news
“A set of keys unlocking more than 100 legislative offices and rooms in the Texas Capitol were lost Monday night in a possible grab-and-run theft that triggered beefed-up security and mandatory ID checks in the historic statehouse complex.” Austin American-Statesman
“The air pollution permitting process in the nation’s largest greenhouse-gas-producing state does not adhere to the Clean Air Act and portions of it should be thrown out, federal regulators said Tuesday in an announcement applauded by Texas environmentalists.” Associated Press
“From a back-row seat in the Illinois Senate chamber, Barack Obama listened silently as political adversaries mocked his health-care reform bill: Socialized medicine. Hillarycare redux. Too expensive. Back-door route to a single-payer system.” Washington Post
“In our exhausting 24/7 news cycle, demand for timely information and analysis is greater than ever. With journalists being laid off in droves, savvy political operatives have stepped eagerly into the breach. What’s most troubling is not that TV-news producers mistake their work for journalism, which is bad enough, but that young people drawn to journalism increasingly see no distinction between disinterested reporting and hit-jobbery.” The Atlantic
Everything else
Rangers took both games of a double-header against the Indians last night 11-9 and 10-5. Texas is two games behind Boston in the wild-card race and four and a half games behind the Angels in the AL West.
BYU moves up 11 spots to No. 9 in AP football poll. Oklahoma drops to number 13.
Cedric Golden says in his column this morning that Longhorn fans shouldn’t get too giddy about Oklahoma’s loss over the weekend. “We know that to be the big cheese, a team must defeat quality opponents — and hope those same opponents defeat other quality opponents. So in the world of college football, that loss dropped the Sooners down a bit — not only from the short list of national title hopefuls, but also in the all-important USA Today coaches poll, where they plummeted 11 spots from third to 14th, and in the Associated Press poll, where they dropped to 13th.”
Jon Gosselin tells ABC News that he “despises” Kate, his estranged wife. “I can’t sit on the sofa with that woman,” Us Magazine says.
Celebrity birthday of the day: Adam Sandler is 43.
Get more Legislative coverage inside the Virtual Capitol
Comments
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By RowdyJ
September 9, 2009 8:24 AM | Link to this
Thirty minutes. That’s how long Dewhurst will wait to officially “change” his mind and file the papers for a US Senate run…….that’s after KBH officially declares her resignation. IF that ever happens. What a country. Get paid for one job while you run for another.