Home > First Reading > Archives > 2009 > November > 03 > Entry
Election Day, here and everywhere
You can rewrite the Texas Constitution today … New poll has Perry up 12 on KBH … Movement in House GOP primaries
Stephen F. Austin would have been 216 years old today (assist: General Land Office).
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Bright sunshine. Seasonable high of 77.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it.)
Monday highlights and the day ahead
It’s Election Day. We don’t quite have the sizzle of a race for president or governor, but there’s interesting stuff happening at just about every level of government, and no, I’m not just talking about the school bond election in Zavalla ISD.
Speaking of school districts, that’s an interesting place to start. Remember when the Legislature in 2006 put some pretty tight limits on how much local school boards could raise their tax rates unless they had voter approval? Neither do I. But the ever-helpful Joe Smith over at TexasISD.com does, and he reports that 28 school districts will hold elections today to see if they can increase their tax rates.
Another interesting stat from Joe Smith: The number of school districts rejecting proposed tax increases is on the increase. In 2006, the first year of such elections, 93 percent of them passed, and in 2007, it was 78 percent. Last year it was 60 percent. It will be interesting to see what sort of mood voters are in now that we’ve had more than a full year of economic doom and gloom.
Remember that these elections were key to resolving challenges to the state’s school finance lawsuit. Local school boards would rather not have to go to voters to increase their tax rates — after all, members of the Legislature don’t have to — but this is the system.
In Houston today, voters will start the process of replacing term-limited Mayor Bill White. It’s expected that the top two finishers will advance to a runoff.
Of course we have the constitutional amendments statewide. Will Texas take a big step toward more Tier One universities? Will the property-appraisal system see reforms? Will the proposition on eminent domain pass, even as comprehensive eminent-domain reform waits?
And nationally, there are three key races to watch, and everyone will try to draw way too many conclusions from them. First, there’s the race for governor in Virginia, which the Republican is almost certain to win. Then there is the governor’s race in New Jersey, where there have been conflicting polls. And finally you have that congressional district in New York, where you have Democrat Bill Owens trying to hold off Doug Hoffman, the nominee of the Conservative Party after the Republican nominee dropped out and threw her support behind the Democrat.
Those who are expecting a good day (Republicans) say it’s a referendum on President Barack Obama. Those who do not expect a good day (Democrats) say it’s not. Everyone wants to know whether this is going to be a sign of things to come. Sean Hannity even asked GOP pundit Jeri Thompson (Fred’s wife) that question on Monday. “It definitely may be,” she said. And as Dana Milbank points out in today’s Washington Post, “Hard to argue with a definite maybe.”
• There was some movement Monday in Texas House races. Former Tyler Mayor Joey Seeber, who had been in Austin meeting with leaders of political action committees in August, dropped his GOP primary bid against Rep. Leo Berman.
And Former Brazos County Tax Assessor-Collector Gerald “Buddy” Winn said Monday that he would run in the GOP primary for the seat now held by Rep. Fred Brown, R-College Station, according to the Bryan/College Station Eagle. Brown told the newspaper that he’s unsure whether he will seek re-election.
UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Quorum Report had the news of Winn’s candidacy a month ago.
• Democrat Mark Thompson dropped his bid for governor on Monday, throwing his support to Hank Gilbert, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
• U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s campaign announced Monday a group called “Aggies for Kay,” which includes former Texas A&M System regents, past presidents of the Association of Former Students and past chairmen of the Texas A&M Foundation. Jon Hagler, an investment industry executive and former chairman of the Texas A&M Foundation who is part of Hutchison’s new Aggie coalition, said he’s concerned about Perry’s involvement with the university. Hagler said, “The governor has now appointed every A&M regent, as well as the chancellor of our system. And the compelling common characteristic of our regents is their political support for the governor. The regents have endorsed a structural change in the relationship between the flagship and the system, which is led by the governor’s former chief of staff. Flagship no longer has the autonomy to create its own destiny and manage its own affairs. It has become an institution whose strategy and approach is effectively set in the governor’s office.”
Poll watch
The Texas Tribune launches today with a poll that shows Perry leading Hutchison, 42 percent to 30 percent. Debra Medina comes in at 7 percent. The poll shows nobody gaining much traction on the Democratic side, but Kinky Friedman leading the field.
Democrat Hank Gilbert finished at the bottom of the pack in the poll with 0.3 percent of the vote, and his campaign responded swiftly. In a lengthy statement e-mailed to reporters this morning, Gilbert spokesman Vince Leibowitz said, “It is a complete and total joke. In addition to Hank Gilbert having been left off part of the poll — a fact the Tribune fails to mention but which is clearly mentioned in a footnote of the poll — the company conducting the poll is one that conducts unreliable internet-based polls.”
The poll was conducted Oct. 20-27 in conjunction with the University of Texas. It’s worth noting that it came on the heels of a rough patch of news for Perry, specifically the national spotlight cast on his shakeup of the Forensic Science Commission. And yet it gives Perry the same lead as the last UT poll, conducted during the summer. This must be very discouraging for the Hutchison campaign, which to this point has been much more focused on Perry-bashing than laying out a vision for the state.
The Perry/Hutchison matchup is based on questioning of 357 respondents, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.19 percent. One sign of hope for the Hutchison campaign: Almost one in five respondents — 18 percent — remains undecided.
Said Hutchison spokesman Joe Pounder, “As we said when the last poll came out that showed Kay Bailey Hutchison leading, polls go up and they go down but the only one that matters is on Election Day. Our internals show a completely different race so we are comfortable with where we are. The Tribune has paid for a faulty poll.”
The poll was conducted online, and my experience with the UT poll taken right before the 2008 election was that it was pretty reliable. Here’s the rundown of their questions and answers. And here’s a rundown of the methodology.
(As a side note, congratulations to my many friends at the Tribune on today’s launch of their site. They’ve all worked very hard to get to this point, and that hard work is reflected in their product.)
In the news
“When State Board of Education Member David Bradley had a legal question about investing the Permanent School Fund, his first stop was not the lawyer hired by the board to answer such inquiries. It was Austin lawyer Kevin O’Hanlon.” Austin American-Statesman
“The Texas Medical Association’s political arm, TEXPAC, today announced its endorsement of Gov. Rick Perry’s re-election campaign. The group selected Perry because of his ‘unwavering support and defense of Texas’ medical liability reforms and his efforts to protect the sacred patient-physician bond,’ said Dr. William Fleming III, president of the association. But relations between the doctors and Perry haven’t always been so warm.” Austin American-Statesman
“Texas educators forcibly pinned down students with disabilities more than 18,000 times in the last school year, sometimes injuring them in the process.” Texas Tribune
“Unlike the complicated and controversial man, lawyer John O’Quinn’s will is quite simple — he’s leaving his riches to the charitable foundation that bears his name.” Houston Chronicle
“Houston, once considered the nation’s capital of dirty air, is on the verge of meeting federal limits for smog for the first time.” Houston Chronicle
“Gov. Rick Perry on Monday bashed Washington-style health care fixes, but he wouldn’t rule out taking federal incentives for insuring more people if Congress offers them.” Associated Press
“More than 10,000 people turned out Monday night for a North Houston Tea Party Patriots gathering to protest proposed health care reform and what they called big government spending and overzealous government leadership, according to preliminary attendance figures.” Houston Chronicle
“On Monday, the eve of Election Day, Bexar County’s elections chief gloomily predicted that fewer than one of every 20 registered voters will have cast ballots by the time polls close tonight. The early voting numbers, a strong indicator of overall turnout, were paltry.” San Antonio Express-News
Everything else
Phillies force a World Series game six, back in New York, after beating the Yankees 8-6. Game six will be Wednesday.
Great road win for the Rockets on Monday — 113-96 against Utah.
New Orleans Saints’ win on Monday Night Football gave them a 7-0 start, the best ever in franchise history. The Saints and Colts are the only unbeaten teams left in the NFL.
Ashlee Simpson-Wentz is getting the boot from “Melrose Place,” prompting big sister Jessica to unleash a mini-tirade on Twitter. Jessica: “Who writes this crap? i have had bad scripts to work with, but this? Thank God my sister is amazing and got you some press.”
Get more Legislative coverage inside the Virtual Capitol
Comments
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By ROBERT DAVIS
November 3, 2009 7:24 AM | Link to this
NOW THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE IS SAYING THE DUMOCRATS HEALTH CARE BILL WILL COST 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS A YEAR! AND WHERE WILL THAT COME FROM? HOLD ON TO YOUR WIFE AND YOUR WALLET THE DUMNOCRATS ARE KILLING OUR ECONOMY ONCE MORE. SMALL BUSINESS CANNOT PAY THE HUGE TAX INCREASES THAT WILL REQUIRE. LLOYD DOGGETT SHOULD BE THROWN OUT OF OFFICE FOR SUPPORTING SUCH A TOTALLY STUPID BILL. FIND A BETTER SOLUTION LIKE TAX CREDITS. LEAVE THE PEOPLES MONEY IN THEIR WALLETS AND STOP KILLING THIS COUNTRYS CHANCES TO COMPETE IN A GOLBAL ECONOMY. THESE DUMOCRATS HAVE NOT ONE LICK OF COMMON SENSE. WAKE UP AMERICA! YOUR KIDS FUTURE IS BEING THROWN AWAY BY THESE NUTS.
By Vince Leibowitz
November 3, 2009 7:25 AM | Link to this
I don’t think that comparing the 2008 poll to today’s poll shows that the latter is reliable. At this point in the race there is likely no better a way to find a large pool of low information voters than the one used by this poll. Giving a poll that left out a candidate and then went back and added them but only partially any credibility whatsoever is a tremendously dangerous thing for the media to do.
By vince is cranky
November 3, 2009 7:52 AM | Link to this
Vince is cranky this morning cause his crack pot netroots candidate bombed in the frist statewide survey since Hanky got in the race. more work less boxers.
By Bob
November 3, 2009 8:39 AM | Link to this
Robert Davis, please tell me - is it “DUMOCRATS” or “DUMNOCRATS”? What in the world is a “GOLBAL” economy? What kind of a sentence is “SMALL BUSINESS CANNOT PAY THE HUGE TAXES INCREASES THAT WILL REQUIRE” ? Finally, does your keyboard not have an apostrophe (“PEOPLES”, “COUNTRYS”) or lower case capability?
Maybe you’re not the best person to call something else “TOTALLY STUPID”, eh?
By Joe
November 3, 2009 8:46 AM | Link to this
Tell me something Mr Reporter. Why are you giving so much print to Hank Gilbert? If they rank so low are they even worth talking about or devoting any of your print to them? Seems to me your time could be better spent telling us about corruption down at the Legislature. There is certainly a lot of that to uncover. A good newspaper would do that. A bad newspaper will talk about someone with 1% name recognition.
By Sarah
November 3, 2009 8:55 AM | Link to this
I agree with Joe. Your paper waste too much print on things that dont matter. Did you once in you column or did your paper ever run a local story angle on the conviction of Don Hill in Dallas? He at one time was thought to be in line to be mayor of Dallas. He was Dallas Mayor Pro Tem. He is from Austin. Grew up here. Went to elementary school, went to Junior High at University Junior High and graduated from Austin High. It was a big story in Dallas but nothing on the local angle. Lots of people in Austin knew and know him in austin but nothing but an AP story was run in your paper. I called your editor but your paper did nothing. Yet you spend lots of lines on Hank Gilbert and you wonder why you circulation is falling.
By under 43
November 3, 2009 9:01 AM | Link to this
The age says it all….The poll conducted is based on the majority of people approx 44-64 years of age! This demographic is going to decide Texas? I still think there are more voter’s under 43.
The Tribune’s story on disabled people getting improper restraint is bothersom. A teacher sitting (and killing) a student who wanted to go to lunch is outrageous.
By under 43
November 3, 2009 9:01 AM | Link to this
The age says it all….The poll conducted is based on the majority of people approx 44-64 years of age! This demographic is going to decide Texas? I still think there are more voter’s under 43.
The Tribune’s story on disabled people getting improper restraint is bothersom. A teacher sitting (and killing) a student who wanted to go to lunch is outrageous.
By VItamin B
November 3, 2009 9:11 AM | Link to this
Perry is the longest serving governor in Texas history. And he want more!? I have major Perry fatigue. 2 decades of one party domination leads to power abuse.
By Lee
November 3, 2009 10:25 PM | Link to this
We should question why a property owner in Burnet County does not have the right to vote for a new taxation district (see the ESD ballot issues) if they do not actually live in the county. I am being FORCED with NO REPRESENTATION to now pay a NEW TAX by a NEW TAXATION BOARD for property that I bought years ago.