Home > First Reading > Archives > 2009 > November > 04 > Entry
Breaking down election night
Low turnout in Texas … Strake says Hutchison should stay … An instant Herman classic
Happy birthday to Will Fullerton, who works for the Michael Williams campaign; Richard Hudson, chief of staff to Rep. Mike Conaway; Eddie Solis of the Texas Municipal Retirement System; Jennie Kennedy with the University of North Texas System; and Rep. Lois Kolkhorst.
Austin weather from News 8 Austin’s Maureen McCann: Sun with a few scattered clouds. Continued mild with a high of 78.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it — including a Blackberry-friendly version.)
Tuesday highlights and the day ahead
Quite an election night around the country. Every constitutional amendment passes in Texas, Republicans win governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and the Democrat won that congressional seat in New York.
• Here in Texas, all of the constitutional amendments passed. The amendment that aimed to create more tier one universities in Texas got 56 percent of the vote. Proposition 11, which put limits on the taking of the private property, got 81 percent o the vote. Every proposition got at least 55 percent.
Here’s our story from this morning’s paper.
• Voters in a number of Texas school districts rejected efforts to increase the tax rates for maintenance and operations. A lot of these districts are tiny and don’t have much info up on the Web, but from what I’ve been able to cull from TexasISD.com and various news reports, I’ve found 12 districts that approved these elections and 10 that rejected them. There are another 16 districts out there that aren’t accounted for at this point.
Hard to draw too many conclusions when there are so many unknown results, so I won’t try. Hope to have more on this as the day develops. If you know the results of any of these elections, e-mail me at jembry@statesman.com.
• In Houston, Anise Parker and Gene Locke advanced to a runoff in the race for mayor. Parker got 31 percent of the vote and Locke got 26 percent. But here’s the most interesting paragraph in the Houston Chronicle story: “Although no outcome could qualify as completely unexpected in one of the closest mayoral elections in recent memory, the big surprise of the night was the strong showing by Roy Morales, the race’s only conservative. The retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, who ran with virtually no money and no endorsements compared to his opponents, placed only a few percentage points behind City Councilman Peter Brown, who poured more than $3.2 million of his family fortune into his candidacy.”
• Let’s look at the national scene:
Republican candidates for governor won in New Jersey and Virginia. See the “poll watch” section below for some interesting stats on those.
This Tweet this morning from our own Gov. Rick Perry: “Very well run races focused on smaller government in NJ and VA. Congrats to Christie and McDonnell on well deserved victories.”
Dan Balz has great analysis in the Washington Post: “Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year’s midterm elections.”
In New York, Democrat Bill Owens won a congressional seat over Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate who effectively became the Republican nominee after the anointed Republican nominee dropped out. With 89 percent of the precincts reporting, Owens had 49 percent and Hoffman had 46 percent, according to Politico.
George Stephanopoulas looks at the winners and losers in the New York congressional race.
Mayor Michael Bloomberg won in New York with a surprisingly small share of the vote — 51 percent. (A sign that it was just a bad night to be an incumbent, considering his 20-to-1 spending edge). The New York Times looks at the race. And here’s a fun little fact: For some reason, the person who introduced Bloomberg at his victory party was none other than late-night host Jimmy Fallon.
• And now let’s talk about an election that’s coming up in four months. That would be the Democratic primary for governor here in Texas. The Statesman’s Corrie MacLaggan met yesterday with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Farouk Shami. Here’s her story from this morning’s Statesman.
The news that should cause other Democratic candidates headaches: Shami said he’ll spend $10 million on the primary.
Unfortunately for Corrie, Ken Herman was also there. With his camera. Let’s just say that it’s not every day that a candidate for governor asks a reporter how she cares for her hair (actually, in this state, it’s usually the other way around), but Shami isn’t your ordinary candidate.
Here’s the footage:
• Speaking of the gubernatorial primary, George Strake Jr., a critical player in building the Texas Republican Party, is circulating a letter telling fellow Republicans to ask U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to stay in the Senate and not challenge Perry. He writes, “We took a terrible beating in the 2008 national elections but we have a chance of picking up gains across the board in 2010 if we do not destroy ourselves in bloody and expensive primaries. By Senator Hutchison vacating her U.S. Senate seat and running in the gubernatorial primary, she jeopardizes the Republican majority, taking needed funds from local races in an election year that will determine who writes congressional and legislative district lines.”
• A quick note: I should have noted in Tuesday’s post that it was Quorum Report that first reported that Buddy Winn was planning to challenge Rep. Fred Brown in the Republican primary. My bad.
Poll watch
According to exit polls reported this morning on MSNBC, the winning Republican candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia dominated among independents. In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie got 58 percent of the independent votes, compared to 31 percent for Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won 62 percent of independents, compared to 37 percent for Democrat Creigh Deeds.
In Virginia, said MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, “the Obama coalition didn’t show up.”
One other interesting exit poll reported on “Morning Joe” this morning: In New Jersey, 60 percent of voters in an exit poll said President Barack Obama was not a factor in how they voted in the governor’s race. Among those who said he was a factor, half supported Obama and half of them opposed him.
In the news
“IBM Corp.’s failure to protect state information under an $863 million data center consolidation contract has prompted the Texas secretary of state’s office to pull its elections system from the project.” Austin American-Statesman
“Despite a storm of controversy surrounding his shake-up of a state forensic panel, Gov. Rick Perry leads U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison among voters who say they plan to vote in the March Republican primary, according to a new poll.” Austin American-Statesman
“For the $300 million spent on merit pay for teachers over the last three years, Texas was hoping for a big boost in student achievement. But it didn’t happen with the now-defunct program, according to experts hired by the state.” Dallas Morning News
“Reports that Texas has created or saved 19,752 jobs so far with stimulus funding appear to overstate the impact of the program, according to interviews and an analysis of government data.” Dallas Morning News
“The Texas Youth Commission will stop releasing young offenders who are too mentally ill to rehabilitate until the agency is sure they’re receiving proper treatment in the community, officials said Tuesday.” Texas Tribune
Everything else
World Series tonight, Yankees try to close out the Phillies. 7 p.m. on Fox
Mavs beat Utah on Tuesday, 96-85
Get more Legislative coverage inside the Virtual Capitol
Comments
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By ****
November 4, 2009 7:53 AM | Link to this
““Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president”
Of course it’s a referendum on the president. President Hussein spent a LOT of energy and time trying to get those two loser ‘rats re-elected. They lost. He lost. The party of losers…the ‘rats.
By anonymouse2
November 4, 2009 8:03 AM | Link to this
yeah, and this reporter describes that as GREAT analysis. like all good libs, he refuses to accept what’s obvious to everyone else. then again, ignorance is bliss.
p.s. mr. reporter, how about some GREAT analysis on how the war is going? you know, the one He promised to end?
By Michael
November 4, 2009 8:33 AM | Link to this
The Virginia and New Jersey races should be a strong message to our elected officials that we are tired of the current administration’s attempt to socialize our Country. No socialized medicine, no bail outs of banks, insurance companies, or any other private entity unable to make it on its own steam. The best government is the least government so start cutting federal services, re-learn the Constitution, and understand the limits it places on what the central government is allowed to do. Get out of and stay out of our states and out of our private lives!
By Jake
November 4, 2009 8:53 AM | Link to this
Your political bias is showing Mr Embry by providing analysis from leftist publications Washington Post and Politico. You have the gall to quote the political hack George Stephanopoulos without mentioning that he was once a high ranking official in the Clinton administration. I bet if he came from a Republican administration you would certainly mention that. Your paper always reports when a decision comes down and it is from a Republican elected judge. How objective could ol George possibly be? Some day you and your leftist main stream media are going to wake up to the fact that this is a ALL about the ECONOMY stupid. Your day will soon be over. The political winds are changing. Noticed you failed to even mention the vote in Maine banning same sex marriage. Hmmmm. That vote came not out of a Mormon or Catholic state but out of a LIBERAL Northeast state. That vote did not go your way Mr Embry so you ignored mentioning it? I am going to love hearing Madows attack on liberal Maine voters tonight. It was a great day to be a conservative.
By Joe
November 4, 2009 9:00 AM | Link to this
Embry just stop acting like you are trying to be non biased. You “great analysis” quote about the WaPo reporter is laughable. To believe that you think it was a “great analysis” just shows how biased you are. Have you see Warren Buffett’s comment this morning on newspapers?? If he is right maybe you need to find a new occupation…… and soon. Then maybe you can find a new home to spead you liberal lies.
By Nikki V
November 4, 2009 9:03 AM | Link to this
If you are poor and make less than 40,000 a year, what is wrong with a socialist system. What does anybody who drives a honda or toyota pick up truck have in common with a really rich republican. The parallel between the two is funny to me.
By Kay
November 4, 2009 9:05 AM | Link to this
Cannot you find a better quote than one from “Upchuck Todd” Noticed you failed to mention that his wife is a Democratic political operative.
By Larry
November 4, 2009 9:31 AM | Link to this
It wasn’t a referendum on Obama who is still liked by most folks. But it was a referendum on the Democratic controlled Congress. There is rebellion against what they are doing. You can feel it across the country if you are listening. To me it was a good evening…two Republicans won governorships(sending a msg to Dems), the rightwing congressional candidate lost(sending a msg to the Republican right) and gay marriage again experienced a loss(sending a msg to gays) when put to a vote.
By Jay
November 4, 2009 9:36 AM | Link to this
O Nikki Nikki. I feel sorry for you. Do you take pride in your position of honor of making less than $40,000 and driving a pick up? Do you sing the liberal matra “I am poor, I am poor and want everyone else to be poor.”
I make $35,000 but I have not bought into the class warfare of the rich liberal white establishment types that you have. Dont you see what rich Mr George Soros is about? Cannot you see how you are being manipulated??
By Ron
November 4, 2009 9:45 AM | Link to this
Noticed you did not quote the election anlysis statements of leftist Chris “Tingle” Mathews. Mathes shocked me by saying Obama has wasted his political capital on the long drawn out health care battle rather than focusing his political capital on creating jobs and working on the economy in his first year. Mathews even said the huge deficits are even scaring his daughter who has come to him worried about the huge spending deficits.
By papa_puff
November 4, 2009 9:58 AM | Link to this
Some would love to look at the gubernatorial races as referendums on Obama. Such a view is not based on fact. A plurality of voters in both states cited the economy as their top concern, according to exit polls. Majorities in both states said Obama’s job performance was not a factor in their vote. Since 1989, the party winning the White House has always gone on to lose the gubernatorial races in both states the following year. Clinton and Bush both got reelected despite this. Maybe Obama will do the same in 2012. It may have swayed some, but this was not an Obama referendum. How then would you explain the New York 23rd district? The moderate Republican drops out, endorses the Democrat, and the right-wing conservative loses. This would have been the place for a referendum on Obama’s values, yet the Republicans lost a seat they’ve held for over 130 years. This would signal that voters want compromise and a move toward the center, not a Republican party so angry with Obama that they will not budge on anything. You may try to use these elections to denegrate Obama, but that would show you are just out of touch with the truth.
By Vitamin B
November 4, 2009 10:41 AM | Link to this
Why is everyone blasting J. Embry?
NJ has an unemployment rate of 9.7% like Texas. It also has/had a deficit like Texas (but Texas closed it with good ole money from Washington-stimulus). They also have similar property taxes LIKE TEXAS. It doen’t speak well for incumbent Perry. Independents, like Stephanopulus said, don’t go for incumbents or party loyalty. They go for what is happening in the economy. Ken Herman’s tone got sharp when talking about Shami’s Palestanian heritage. Sounded like he was echoing racist’s concerns in a confrontation. Well, Shami’s was just trying to be complementary toward Corrie Mac (hello, he has a hair products company). J. Embry ,you looked good too in Texas Tribune’s video. Is Ken a passive aggressive or? Mainstream Americans like the legal definition between a man and woman regardless of what political party.
By Wins go both ways
November 4, 2009 10:45 AM | Link to this
AND upstate NY was won by a Democrat after over a century of GOP.
By anonymouse2
November 4, 2009 10:50 AM | Link to this
because he lies by professing to be an objective reporter.
By Cameron
November 4, 2009 11:03 AM | Link to this
Of the Virginia gubernatorial, New Jersey gubernatorial and New York congressional race, only one may be described as a referendum on Obama’s performance so far. That is the New Jersey race. Virginia has been an historically Republican state. Only recent gains by the Democratic Party have altered that. What that means is that the Democratic gains in Virginia were certainly a referendum on Bush’s performance in office.
New Jersey, historically, is a swing state. Democrats have had control of the governor’s office for the past seven years but was controlled by the Republicans for the 8 years before that.
In the New York congressional race, you probably should have noticed that the former occupant was a Republican. In fact, it’s been held by a Republican since 1993. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NewYork%27s23rdcongressionaldistrict
I do not call this race a referendum on the Obama administration because I doubt the results have anything to do with him. If they did, I think Democrats would have carried the district in 2008. I think it does demonstrate that some people have grasped conservative strategy quicker than others and are sick of it. The best evidence of this is Scozzafava dropping out of the race and endorsing the Democratic candidate.
The Maine election is not a referendum on the Obama administration either. It merely demonstrates that people who are against gay marriage go out and vote. The majority of people who answer to polls that they support gay marriage are younger and straight. They don’t have an actual stake in the election and don’t show up. This is an issue that should not even be decided by popular vote. No civil rights issues should be resolved that way. We didn’t put desegregation up to a popular vote, nor women’s suffrage nor equal rights for all races. The idea that we would require gays to gain equal rights through the ballot is unconscionable.
I have noticed that the majority of comments to this blog are usually “you’re biased.” I have attempted to make fun of you by pointing out Embry’s reporting regarding non-political news events such as sports scores and music polls. I had hoped that this would make y’all reevaluate what you choose to say every single day and realize that there is something kind of stupid about it. But here you go again with the same observation over and over. Don’t you ever get tired of saying the same thing? I know this is going to expose my liberal bias, but just listen to that Talking Heads song Psycho Killer.
I mean, hell, I didn’t even read the articles that Embry linked to. I did this little bit of research on my own. I knew a lot of it before even having to research it. I was then surprised to find out that Republicans had controlled New York’s 23rd for the past 16 years. It’s funny because I never saw it reported here that Democrats just captured a Republican New York district. What sort of bias does that show?
Alas, I doubt any of you will respond to this. You never respond to anything I say.
By papa_puff
November 4, 2009 11:46 AM | Link to this
@Cameron, a correction to your post about the NY 23rd. NY, as most states, has redistricted often over the years. Up until the 1980s the 23rd consisted of parts of New York City and one adjacent county. The 23rd of today is the northermost counties of NY. The district(s) that represent these counties has had a Republican representative since Ulysses S. Grant was president in the 1870s. This is the first time in over 130 years that these counties have elected a Democrat to represent them.
By Cameron
November 4, 2009 12:10 PM | Link to this
Papa_Puff, they certainly bring their own facts to the table, don’t they? Made up facts supported by generalizations like “New York is a liberal state therefore every district is a liberal district.” Notice they won’t respond to that fact either. They’ll just go on about someone being biased. That’s all they have. Sorry, sorry. I forgot that they also can change the letters in some names to make them into insults. And then there’s always scapegoating and calling people Communists, Facists, Socialists, Nazis, terrorists, unamerican…
By anonymouse2
November 4, 2009 12:28 PM | Link to this
looks like you’d take the hint eventually.
By Larry
November 4, 2009 12:30 PM | Link to this
Why are the Obama folks saying these elections weren’t a statement about Obama and the Dems? If the Dems had won we would of heard these same people bragging about how Obama had won. That is the problem with politics…the constant lying, the constant attempt to mislead folks. The left and right were both spanked. People are saying we need politicos that can work together, not just divide us.
By Cameron
November 4, 2009 12:41 PM | Link to this
anonymouse2, I do know what your lack of response means. You have no way to refute what I’m saying. It’s best just to say nothing lest you look foolish. Or you choose to respond in a knee jerk manner.
Larry, it would be great to get people who could work together to come up with solutions. That’s why we need viable third parties built from the ground up. Or better yet, no partisan politics at all.