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Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Who will vote in the GOP primary?
Campaigns spar over turnout … Hutchison hooked up to the Truth-O-Meter … Statesman kicks off series on gubernatorial candidates
Happy birthday to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn
Austin weather: There’s a 30 percent chance of rain today, 40 percent chance tonight and then it’s really supposed to rain Wednesday. Temperatures won’t get much past 50 this afternoon.
(Send me an e-mail at jembry@statesman.com if you want a link to First Reading as soon as I post it. Also, you can follow me on Twitter for news updates around the clock.)
Monday highlights and the day ahead
BREAKING: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow in Pennsylvania this Groundhog Day morning. Six more weeks of winter.
• Speaking to the Texas Farm Bureau yesterday in San Marcos, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison said, “I know that without you I would not be here, that you are sticking with me in a very tough race. I need to ask you to reach out beyond farm bureau members and help bring people in to the polls that don’t usually vote in Republican primaries.”
Gov. Rick Perry’s campaign was quick to say that Hutchison was suggesting that she couldn’t win among Republicans.
But both campaigns have said for months that hundreds of thousands of people who don’t regularly vote in the Republican primary will vote in this one.
Fewer than 700,000 people voted in the 2006 Republican primary. As I reported in December, the Perry campaign expects about 1.2 million people to vote in the March primary. The Hutchison campaign expects a turnout of about 1.5 million. Key players in each campaign said they expect the additional voters to be those who vote for Republicans in general elections and occasionally in the GOP primary.
I don’t see anything in Hutchison’s comments that suggests she wants Democrats to vote in the Republican primary (although Democrats have every right to do so under Texas law). And I don’t see how Hutchison encouraging her supporters to bring along friends who wouldn’t normally go to the polls is any different from the Perry campaign spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on its Home Headquarters program, which is designed to recruit voters who need a little prodding to get to the polls.
As the Perry campaign says about its Home Headquarters program on its Web site, “You’ll be able to use our website to design handouts, e-mails, mail pieces or signs specifically designed for your friends, family and neighbors. You know what information your mother or brother needs to get in order to support Governor Perry. You know how best to get each of your 12 people to vote (maybe you’ll need to drive them to the early voting location, maybe a phone call in the morning before they leave for work or at the office before they head home).”
• Republican Debra Medina is hoping to make a big splash today with her Medina Money Bomb, which encourages small donors to give today. According to the Statesman’s Kate Alexander, the event is pegged to the Feb. 2 anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ended the U.S.-Mexican War in 1848.
• Check out the latest post from the folks at PolitiFact Texas. They tackle Hutchison’s claims on whether the state is using the e-Verify program to check workers’ immigration status.
• And I definitely encourage you to pick up a copy of our print edition over the next two weeks. Today we launch a series of in-depth profiles about the five major gubernatorial candidates, and we start with some excellent stories about Democrat Farouk Shami. You really need to see the stories and accompanying photos by the highly accomplished Jay Janner in print to get the full effect.
We will tell you about each candidate in three stories. The first is the story of how they got here — their early lives, where they came from, turning points before they got into politics. This story is particularly strong today, as Corrie MacLaggan talks about how a young Shami lost three brothers right before his eyes in a tragedy that no child should have to endure, how his parents threatened to disown him when he said he wanted to work in the hair industry and how a young Shami was told by his parents that he had been engaged for years to someone he considered a sister.
Each profile also takes you through the candidates’ records, whether it be in politics or business or as a political activist. And the third piece is a little lighter, as we look at the candidates’ style — how they dress, how they talk, how they interact with others.
The goal is to tell you more about these candidates than you usually get in lengthy profiles that often amount to laundry lists of their accomplishments and setbacks. We have the Democratic candidates this week and the Republican candidates next week. And each will be accompanied by a photo gallery of the candidates through the years. You can see Shami’s gallery here.
Stat of the day
Many students go to community colleges expecting to pick up some basic courses and transfer to two-year universities. But as Brian Thevenot writes in a very good Texas Tribune story, “the majority of students don’t transfer at all, and only 15 percent who start community college full-time go on to earn four-year degrees within six years, according to the latest available state data tracking full-time students over the long-term. Even fewer earn two-year degrees from two-year colleges: just 11 percent statewide. An additional 5 percent earned professional certificates in vocations that range from nursing to welding. So all told, just three out of 10 full-time community college students end up with any credential after six years. And that figure doesn’t include tens of thousands of part-time students — the majority at many campuses — who experts say are even less likely to finish.”
Countdown
14 days until early voting begins.
28 days until the March 2 primary.
In the news
Lobbyist is often a dirty word during elections, and State Board of Education member Ken Mercer has been repeatedly hurling the term at his Republican primary opponent in an effort to sully him. Tim Tuggey, who is mounting a strong challenge to Mercer, deflects that attack with an explanation that he is a business lawyer who must sometimes lobby elected officials on behalf his clients. Austin American-Statesman
Attorneys for the Texas convict whose escape in December led to housecleaning of several top officials filed a lawsuit today alleging that authorities are violating his rights at an Amarillo prison in trying to determine how he got a pistol to make his way to freedom. Austin American-Statesman
Texas lawmakers on Monday hammered home that without a new funding method, the Texas Department of Transportation will be unable to build any new roads beyond 2012 and will not have enough money to properly maintain existing roads within two to three years. San Antonio Express-News
Whether the next governor is a Democrat or a Republican, the greater Houston area will play a major role in deciding that outcome. Houston Chronicle
The Dallas Cowboys didn’t reach the Super Bowl this year, but dozens of government officials from North Texas will make the trip to Florida. About 50 city employees and elected officials are flying to the Miami area this week for the last Super Bowl before the nation’s biggest sporting event comes to Arlington. Most will travel on the taxpayers’ dime, and they’re using a variety of ways - from federal grants to tourism funds - to pay for the trips. Dallas Morning News
House Criminal Jurisprudence Chairman Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, is miffed that the new chairman of the Texas Forensic Science Commission advised one of Gallego’s invited witnesses not so show up for a recent legislative hearing. Commission Chairman John Bradley said he did not interfere. Houston Chronicle
Everything else
Texas picked up a big win in men’s basketball, beating Oklahoma State, 72-60.
Utah 104, Mavericks 92.
The Houston Chronicle reports that Texans’ owner Bob McNair is working on a multi-year extension for coach Gary Kubiak, who is entering the final year of his contract.
“Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” lead the Academy Awards with nine nominations each, including best picture and director.
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