Home > Uncovering Mexico > Archives > 2008 > April > 08
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Obama closes gap in Mexico
Hillary Clinton has led opinion polls of Mexicans largely since the presidential race began. But this week, a new Reforma newspaper poll has Clinton and Barack Obama dead even. While it may be taking liberties to say the poll could portend a shift in Latino voters’ tendencies in the U.S., it’s still interesting to watch Obama’s rise south of the border.
The poll shows 31 percent of Mexicans rooting for Obama and another 31 percent pulling for Clinton. Only 7 percent of Mexicans want John McCain to win, according to the poll. (I recently had a chat with an official in President Felipe Calderon’s administration who was convinced that McCain would surprise everyone and win.) Obama was strongest in the middle of the country, home to Mexico City, and the poorer, more indigenous south. Clinton fared strongest in the northern border states.
The Reforma poll stands in contrast to a poll taken by the rival El Universal newspaper last month, which showed 41 percent of Mexicans preferring Clinton to 27 percent for Obama.
It’s hard to say what accounts for the shift. Certainly the flak over Obama’s pastor, Jeremiah Wright, didn’t get as much play down here, and repeated calls by Democratic big-wigs for Clinton to get out of the race may have changed some minds. And there is no doubt that Obama’s name recognition in Mexico grows by the day.
