Group predicts record Hispanic turnout in next presidential election

WASHINGTON — A record 11.9 million Hispanic-Americans will vote in this year's presidential elections, a staggering 59 percent more than cast ballots in 2004, a progressive think tank estimated on Wednesday.

With nearly eight in ten Hispanic voters backing Democrats over Republicans in presidential primaries this year, the Latino vote could swing several key battleground states come November, said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network.

"This is a community that is much more Democratic than it was in 2004 and is going to be voting in much greater numbers," Rosenberg told reporters during the release of a report by the organization looking at the growing political heft of Hispanic voters. "It is a new day. Hispanics are poised to play a very major role in the 2008 elections."

Energized by the heated rhetoric on immigration, the study found, Hispanic-Americans have voted in record numbers during this year's presidential primaries. Their impact could be felt heavily in several swing states with large Hispanic populations, including Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada.

"The immigration debate has fundamentally altered the desire for civic participation in the Hispanic community," said Rosenberg. "They are blaming the Republican Party for the anti-immigration sentiment, the anti-immigration rhetoric in America today."

In Florida primaries, Hispanics have made up 12 percent of the total vote, up from 9 percent in the 2004 presidential primaries, according to independent exit poll data the NDN has assembled.

In California, Hispanics have accounted for 29 percent of all votes in this year's primaries, up from 16 percent in 2004.

Even in the heartland, Hispanic voting is up. Hispanics comprised 4 percent of all voters in this year's presidential primaries in Ohio, up from 3 percent in the 2004 primaries.

In Georgia, Hispanics made up 3 percent of all voters in this year's presidential primaries, unchanged from 2004.

And Hispanic voting has trended heavily Democratic.

In 2006, 69 percent of Hispanic voters backed Democratic candidates, with just 30 percent voting for Republicans. That was a marked shift from the 2004 elections, when GOP candidates drew 40 percent Hispanic support and Democrats received 59 percent of Hispanic votes.

The Hispanic flight to the Democratic Party has continued this year. Of the 4.6 million Hispanics who have voted in this year's presidential primaries, 78 percent have backed Democrats, while 22 percent have supported Republicans, according to exit poll data assembled by NDN.

In some states, Hispanics are voting overwhelmingly for Democrats.

In Texas, 88 percent of Hispanic voters backed a Democrat in this year's primaries. In California, 80 percent of California Hispanics voted Democratic. In Georgia, 62 percent of Hispanic voters backed a Democrat, with 38 percent voting Republican, exit polls showed. And in Ohio, 81 percent voted for Democrats.

It's a dramatic reversal from the 2004 elections, when George W. Bush won a second term in the White House with 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, said Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs with NDN.

"Right now the GOP is nowhere near that level," said Ramirez. That's a problem for the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, who hopes his Arizona background will help him with Hispanics.

"He needs to claw his way back up to 40 percent," said Ramirez. "I'm not sure he'll be able to do that."

McCain spokesman Jeff Sadosky countered that McCain was reelected to the Senate in 2004 with the backing of some 70 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona, according to exit polls, and that his positions on immigration, national security, education and the economy continue to resonate among Latinos.

McCain has made three television ads in Spanish, including a Memorial Day release that focused on the contributions Hispanics have made to the U.S. military.

"He's well-positioned and we are making a strong appeal for support among Latinos and feel he can do well," said Sadosky.

A Hispanic population boom is fueling the most profound American demographic shift, said Rosenberg, since successive waves of European immigrants overwhelmed native Americans in the 16th and 17th centuries.

There are 45.5 million people of Hispanic origin in this country, according to 2007 U.S. Census Bureau data. Hispanic-Americans now make up 15 percent of the population - eclipsing African-Americans, at 13 percent, as the largest U.S. minority - and are on track to hit 29 percent of the population by the year 2050.

Of those, 29 million are adults, roughly 13 million of whom are registered to vote. Unprecedented voter registration efforts within the Hispanic community, however, are likely to drive up that number to 14 million by November, said Rosenberg. Combining that number with recent voter participation levels, he said, means that 11.9 million Hispanics will likely vote in the general elections, up from 7.5 million in 2004.

Bob Deans' e-mail address is bobdeans(at)coxnews.com