Crowded planes, higher fares fortecast for summer

WASHINGTON — Air fares are going up and planes will be full this summer because carriers have cut back on flights to reduce their fuel costs, the airline industry predicted Tuesday.

Airlines and airports hope to avoid the delays that plagued last summer's vacation travel, but much depends on the weather and whether improvements are made at the three major New York area airports from which problems spread quickly across the whole country, according to the industry forecast.

"We're going to face a challenging summer," said James C. May, president and CEO of the Air Transport Association of America, the trade organization representing the major U.S. airlines.

"We know that summer travel can be stressful for passengers," said Greg Principato, president of the Airports Council International-North America, which represents the nation's airports. He promised that airports will strive to meet the needs of passengers when delays do occur.

Prices of jet fuel have reached record highs — nearly $170 a barrel, a 63 percent increase over last year — so "a rise in fares in inevitable," said May. Current ticket prices "are not coming close" to covering these rising costs, he said.

"I'm not going to speculate as to how much (the fare increases) will be or when they will come," he said at a news conference.

About 2.7 million fewer Americans are expected to take commercial flights this summer than last — 211.5 million compared to 214.2 million in the summer of 2007, May said. He blamed the 1.3 percent decline on a weakening economy.

"People are worried about the economy and their own financial condition so they're delaying their travel plans," said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association, an advocacy group for airline passengers. "They're weighing the price of gas — how much it will cost them to drive versus flying, whether they'll have to rent a car when they get there. Everyone is just very concerned about the future."

However, fewer passengers will not result in more empty seats. Airlines are reducing the number of domestic flights by about 1.9 percent so the planes that do fly will be about 85 percent full — the same "load factor" as last summer.

"You'll either be in the middle seat or next to someone in the middle seat. That's not going to change," Stempler said in a telephone interview.

The full planes make it more important to keep flights on time and especially to avoid canceled flights, May said. There are fewer empty seats for re-routed passengers who missed connections because of delays or whose original flights were canceled.

"With an 85 percent load factor, it's difficult to re-accomodate passengers," explained May.

He said airlines have a tremendous financial incentive to keep flights on time. A delayed plane sitting on the tarmac at JFK burns $60 a minute in fuel, he said. Late flights cost carriers about $10 billion last year, he said.

May said it is the airlines' "expectation and hope that we will improve over last summer" by reducing delays and cancellations. However, he said much depends on the weather and whether planned improvements reduce delays at John F. Kennedy International and LaGuardia airports in New York and Newark Liberty Airport in New Jersey.

The three New York airports account for 48 percent of all the flight delays in the country as problems that begin there radiate out to other airports, May said.

After last summer's plague of delays, the Transportation Department has imposed flight caps on the three New York area airports to ease the jam-ups.

"While New York remains a choke point, airlines, airports and government are doing all they can to avoid lengthy delays when possible and to provide a pleasant travel experience for all," May said.

But with crowded flights and tighter security checks, "even on the best days, people are spending more time in airports," said Principato. So airports are improving their services — providing everything from Wi-Fi Internet access to rocking chairs to play areas for children, he said. Four airports have pet hotels.

The association is insuring that at least one food vendor stays open 24 hours at day at all airports and that passengers forced to stay in an airport are provided comforts such as cots and blankets, he said.

Typical summer weather patterns mean thunderstorms and other disturbances will force some delays, the officials said.

"We're not going to be perfect," said May, but the airlines and airports aim to "minimize delays."

Bob Dart is a Washington correspondent for Cox Newspapers.