Clark Howard's Tips
Occupancy fraud stalls housing market recoveryMay 26, 2008
We track the calls that come into our show and the Consumer Action Center. There's been a shift during the last 30 days from calls about debt and credit questions to calls about the housing market. About 35 percent of your questions now deal with this latter topic.
In some of the most speculative markets in the country, a much larger percentage of homes than previously thought were owned by speculators who never intended to live in them. This is referred to as occupancy fraud.
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What happens when these homes go into foreclosure? Usually, an increase in foreclosures equals an increase in demand for rentals. As people get displaced, they have to have to go somewhere. But in this case, the normal cycle of displaced demand is upset because the foreclosed houses were ghost residences.
The end result is that housing recovery in spec-heavy markets will take longer to happen and the decline in values could be deeper than anticipated. The Wall Street Journal reports that Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and Florida will be hardest hit by this trend.
Meanwhile, homes in Michigan and Ohio are very inexpensive, but for good reason. Both states have declining job markets. Sure you can steal a deal, but where will you work?
Some builders have responded by offering price protection. Always remember that housing is cyclical and will recover. What makes the occupancy fraud scenario different is the combination of spec building in oversupply and the dangerous lending that fueled it. So it's going to take longer to work off the excess in many places.
